Publication

Forecasting at Scale

The American Statistician 2017


Abstract

Forecasting is a common data science task that helps organizations with capacity planning, goal setting, and anomaly detection. Despite its importance, there are serious challenges associated with producing reliable and high-quality forecasts – especially when there are a variety of time series and analysts with expertise in time series modeling are relatively rare. To address these challenges, we describe a practical approach to forecasting “at scale” that combines configurable models with analyst-in-the-loop performance analysis. We propose a modular regression model with interpretable parameters that can be intuitively adjusted by analysts with domain knowledge about the time series. We describe performance analyses to compare and evaluate forecasting procedures, and automatically flag forecasts for manual review and adjustment. Tools that help analysts to use their expertise most effectively enable reliable, practical forecasting of business time series.

Related Publications

All Publications

Open Source Evolutionary Structured Optimization

Jeremy Rapin, Pauline Bennet, Emmanuel Centeno, Daniel Haziza, Antoine Moreau, Olivier Teytaud

Evolutionary Computation Software Systems Workshop at ​GECCO - July 9, 2020

Adherence to suicide reporting guidelines by news shared on a social networking platform

Steven A. Sumner, Moira Burke, Farshad Kooti

PNAS - July 6, 2020

A Counterfactual Framework for Seller-Side A/B Testing on Marketplaces

Viet Ha-Thuc, Avishek Dutta, Ren Mao, Matthew Wood, Yunli Liu

ACM SIGIR - July 25, 2020

Finding the Best k in Core Decomposition: A Time and Space Optimal Solution

Deming Chu, Fan Zhang, Xuemin Lin, Wenjie Zhang, Ying Zhang, Yinglong Xia, Chenyi Zhang

ICDE - April 20, 2020

To help personalize content, tailor and measure ads, and provide a safer experience, we use cookies. By clicking or navigating the site, you agree to allow our collection of information on and off Facebook through cookies. Learn more, including about available controls: Cookies Policy