Publication

Fire Now, Fire Later: Alarm-Based Systems for Prescriptive Process Monitoring

Knowledge and Information Systems (KAIS)


Abstract

Predictive process monitoring is a family of techniques to analyze events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict the future state or the final outcome of running process instances. Existing techniques in this field are able to predict, at each step of a process instance, the likelihood that it will lead to an undesired outcome. These techniques, however, focus on generating predictions and do not prescribe when and how process workers should intervene to decrease the cost of undesired outcomes. This paper proposes a framework for prescriptive process monitoring, which extends predictive monitoring with the ability to generate alarms that trigger interventions to prevent an undesired outcome or mitigate its effect. The framework incorporates a parameterized cost model to assess the cost-benefit trade-off of generating alarms. We show how to optimize the generation of alarms given an event log of past process executions and a set of cost model parameters. The proposed approaches are empirically evaluated using a range of real-life event logs. The experimental results show that the net cost of undesired outcomes can be minimized by changing the threshold for generating alarms, as the process instance progresses. Moreover, introducing delays for triggering alarms, instead of triggering them as soon as the probability of an undesired outcome exceeds a threshold, leads to lower net costs.

Related Publications

All Publications

NeurIPS - December 6, 2021

Parallel Bayesian Optimization of Multiple Noisy Objectives with Expected Hypervolume Improvement

Samuel Daulton, Maximilian Balandat, Eytan Bakshy

UAI - July 27, 2021

Measuring Data Leakage in Machine-Learning Models with Fisher Information

Awni Hannun, Chuan Guo, Laurens van der Maaten

arXiv - January 29, 2020

fastMRI: An Open Dataset and Benchmarks for Accelerated MRI

Jure Zbontar, Florian Knoll, Anuroop Sriram, Tullie Murrell, Zhengnan Huang, Matthew J. Muckley, Aaron Defazio, Ruben Stern, Patricia Johnson, Mary Bruno, Marc Parente, Krzysztof J. Geras, Joe Katsnelson, Hersh Chandarana, Zizhao Zhang, Michal Drozdzal, Adriana Romero, Michael Rabbat, Pascal Vincent, Nafissa Yakubova, James Pinkerton, Duo Wang, Erich Owens, Larry Zitnick, Michael P. Recht, Daniel K. Sodickson, Yvonne W. Lui

NeurIPS - December 6, 2021

CRYPTEN: Secure Multi-Party Computation Meets Machine Learning

Brian Knott, Shobha Venkataraman, Awni Hannun, Shubho Sengupta, Mark Ibrahim, Laurens van der Maaten

To help personalize content, tailor and measure ads, and provide a safer experience, we use cookies. By clicking or navigating the site, you agree to allow our collection of information on and off Facebook through cookies. Learn more, including about available controls: Cookie Policy